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  1. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    Interest on the debt at $928 billion now exceeds Defense spending in the USA and it is still climbing rapidly. Interest payments on govt debt will rise to $1.1 trillion next year. This is why Biden, Janet Yellen and Congress will be begging for rate cuts.
  2. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    The budget deficit the past 12 months has been almost $2 trillion and you can see the trend. Tax revenue down, spending is up 13% YOY. And the recession hasn't even gotten bad yet. $3 trillion deficits coming?
  3. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    I don't recall anyone predicting this happening. It's an artifact of the yield curve remaining inverted for so long now. Usually inversions are just a blip, but this one is months old now. This doesn't even mean a simple recession anymore. The Bank Run a Cometh!
  4. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    Really? Tell us more :pound:
  5. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    Well, here's how it works step-by-step. Could be slightly long, so bear with me: The Great Satan’s first instinct (as holder of the world reserve currency) whenever handed a hot-potato of self-inflicted inflation, is to hand it off to the rest of the world—i.e., to export his inflation to...
  6. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    By "transferring inflation", do you mean the Great Satan's practice of exporting their inflation to other countries around the world?
  7. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    This is more true than people realize. They were simply buying time since the 2008 crisis; the collapse was inevitable, they just wanted to control the timing. This is the gold example which should be taught to people about how a debt-based central bank destroys a nation, the Trojan horse is the...
  8. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

  9. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    JUST IN: 🇺🇸 722 US banks reported unrealized losses exceeding 50% of capital.
  10. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    China continues to sell US Treasury debt and buy gold. China raised its gold holdings by about 8.09 tons in April. Total stockpiles now sit at about 2,076 tons, after the nation increased reserves by about 120 tons in the five months through March.
  11. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    The Great Depression began in August 1929, when the economic expansion of the Twenties came to an end. A series of financial crises punctuated the contraction. This chart shows Global Financials today. The Fed is raising rates while watching regional banks implode left and right.
  12. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    https://youtube.com/shorts/9TTLN8hsuaM?feature=share3
  13. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    The yield on the 10Year US Treasury is known by most investors to represent the real cost of capital/borrowing. In short, it is the most important yield in the world, as it prices the cost of the world’s reserve (undeserved) currency. Thus, when the yields rise, the cost of debt rises, and in...
  14. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    The Fed, when it targets inflation and when it says that it wants to bring inflation back down to 2%, uses as its yardstick the inflation index that was released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis: the Core PCE price index. This is generally the lowest lowball inflation index that the US...
  15. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    Paying cash at a restaurant in Argentina. The local currency is becoming worthless.
  16. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

  17. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    The 10Y-2Y inverted yield curve does not bode well for the US economy. Last week, retail traders bought $19.9 billion worth of puts to open. They bought only $6.5 billion in calls to open. This is the first time in history that puts were 3x calls. Top 1% of Americans (by wealth) own 53.1%...
  18. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    This week, the Panic/Euphoria Model declined to one of the lowest levels in nearly 30 years, firmly in Panic territory. The four-week average dropped below 0.20 for the first time since the pandemic panic, joining only five other signals since 1994. One of the primary drivers of extremes...
  19. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    They printed the bubble, they pricked their stock bubble that they had created. Once you create an implosion in a blowoff market that has gone way beyond excess and it starts down, it’s impossible to stop it. That was true in the 2000 break and the 2007 top to the 2009 low. They tried to...
  20. Trial By Fire

    Monitoring US Economy

    Housing is already too expensive because of low interest rates that allow asset management firms to buy up real estate and price out individual buyers. Hopefully the rate hikes will burst the bubble and take down the hustlers too. Then housing prices might be more reasonable. Asset Values are...
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