Kaan will happen and it is only a matter of time. Why? Because of the Turkish militarized society. They have always been a militaristic people (as were Indians at one point in time) and defence and expansion have been ingrained in the Turkic-Islamic mindset. Even if they are not practicing Muslims, they will still expand regardless and to do that, they need weapons.
Turkey has made rapid progress in their military-industrial complex compared to us using a mix of the following strategies:
- Using NATO as a technology provider
- Cultivating ties with individual European powers
- Targeting secondary or tertiary technology powerhouses like Korea and Japan
- Giving unhindered tech privileges to a few arms companies
India was best placed to use #2 and #3 points above, with dozens of countries. Working with Brazil and pre-war Ukraine to get strategic design capabilities for large transport aircraft; Working with Japan to secure technology access and knowledge in carbon composites and smart materials; working with Korea in composite armouring and optronic tech access; Working with Sweden to improve European technology access.
These were all doable, and yet, we are so slow that we have barely anything moving on the technology replication and innovation side. After so many efforts, only France and Israel are our partners, that too on just a handful of things.
Today, we have the capability to manufacture much more strategic arms but tactical ones that can cause short- and medium-term mayhem are still nowhere in sight.
Can you imagine what a BSF equipped with armed Tapas drones could do on our border? Or a CRPF armed with ALS-50 loitering munitions against Maoists/Islamic terrorists?
Yet, the vision to use military power against enemies of the state and people is lagging, apart from a willingness to militarize the social Indian mindset.
Turkey has the mindset part sorted out, which is 50% of the battle won.
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Whether they give it as an aid to Pakistan or not, it does not matter since there will be other options that the Turkish industry will churn out. Call it whatever, but we are slow in our pace and others are gaining leverage over us. Turkey along with Azerbaijan has destabilized their rival AKA Armenia to a large extent, which is aided by an incompetent Pashinyan government.
Turks have already been arming terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir against us through Pakistan. Turkish drones can easily be used by Islamic terror groups in Pakistan, given the symbiotic relationship between ISI and Islamic terrorists. It is quite easy to initiate a Hamas-style targeted attack against us. Such an attack would provoke us to launch a full-scale war against Pakistan, but the damage would likely be done.
My point is simple:
they don't need to arm Pakistan with 5th-gen jets to harm us; just enough firepower to cause mayhem to our territory.
Unless we are willing to go to the extent of finishing off any meaningful existence of Pakistan as a country, someone will always be there to aid their existence. US, Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi/Qatar, or a combination of any of these.