Myanmar Coup d'etat & it's impact on India

[Suryavanshi]

So the best option is to stay out and hope for the best.

Might as well pray to Kalki to end the Civil War.

Kek this lindu mentality of let's sit out and pray has us cucked out of several landmass in the continent.

It's our backyard, we must get involved either covertly or overtly.

Either democracy or Junta must take control, rest can be seen later.

 

[Love Charger]

One time mughlai aurangiya ( Agra waale ) himself invaded rakhine or arkan.
Thing was his biradar was running for his life. After beinng given shelter by pirate raja of Arakan , he was betrayed and spiller mughlaiya blood which enraged aurnagya and who would have done the same had he caught his bro.
Just to flex his new power he invaded Arakan and totally decimated that kingdom.

 

[Suryavanshi]

No. Junta is really unpopular. They are even unpopular with Bamar majority. Also, Junta is quite friendly with China as well.

India doesn't want to be seen to helping a really unpopular dictatorship and make itself a enemy of their people. Also, its not as straightforward as Buddhists fighting Christians/Muslims.

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Burman/Bamar (main ethnicity) were fighting with all the other ethnicities since the beginning (as they have been trying to force Burmese language since beginning), but after the recent coup, many Bamar people are also pissed with Junta since Aung San Suu kyi was actually popular and also there is a huge under current of democracy and Burmese economy actually grew a lot during democratic period, since sanctions were removed.

Yellow (Chin) people are related to Mizo and Kuki, thats the one that are coming as refugees and those are the people who now control border post.

Rakhine/Arakanese (bright purple on coast near bangladesh), were once trained by India in Andaman Nicobar, but we disposed them.

How India Betrayed the Rakhine People – And Why It Matters Today

25 years ago this week, India’s army crushed an incipient Rakhine separatist force in the Andaman Islands. In western Myanmar, memories of the incident linger.

thediplomat.com

You live in Murica, it seems that the Civil War issue is a bit overblown by the murican media, they always do.
No Junta can rule over a country without popular support or plain indifference from masses.

Let's not fall into Murican Trap of colour revolution.
If both our and Juntas goal align than we must make amends.

 

[Shuturmurg]

You live in Murica, it seems that the Civil War issue is a bit overblown by the murican media, they always do.
No Junta can rule over a country without popular support or plain indifference from masses.

Let's not fall into Murican Trap of colour revolution.
If both our and Juntas goal align than we must make amends.

This is not color revolution.

 

[rkhanna]

No Junta can rule over a country without popular support or plain indifference from masses.

Can you provide some examples of where this was the case - Where a dicator enjoys majority support of the masses?

 

[Suryavanshi]

Can you provide some examples of where this was the case - Where a dicator enjoys majority support of the masses?

Name the prominent ones that didn't except for basket cases like Africa.
Even in the case of Iran you don't see people against the Mullah back in the non major cities.

You don't need support, peoples indifference is more than enough.

Going against Junta is not an option so we must broker deal to safeguard our interest in Myanamr.
Cannot have a lunatic neighbor at our border.

 

[angryIndian]

Might as well pray to Kalki to end the Civil War.

Kek this lindu mentality of let's sit out and pray has us cucked out of several landmass in the continent.

It's our backyard, we must get involved either covertly or overtly.

Either democracy or Junta must take control, rest can be seen later.

Applying the logic of the ancient era may not necessarily be effective in modern times.
Geopolitics is not a movie like Rambo, Getting directly involved in something that does not immediately affect us majorly can result in serious consequences. We risk making the same mistake as Rajiv Gandhi did in Sri Lanka, and this time, the outcome could be even worse. Myanmar is not like Sri Lanka; it is a massive piece of land, abundant with lush forests, and serves as a perfect insurgent paradise.

Our hands are already full with so much troubles,let us not add another one to it.

 

[Azaad]

 

[Tshering22]

Why are you implying that Junta is some second coming of Satan?
US would want us to do nothing with Myanmar but that is counter productive to our cause. They are a fellow Dharmic nation which has cultural ties with us and has more or less non bothersome to us for the most part of the century.
Junta or democratic parliament both have kept a cordial relationship with us over the years.
Indias indifference to Myanmar has resulted in Chinese companies dominating the market.

We cannot defeat the Junta so better help them to control their side of Insugency.

It's the case of 15% minority of Myanmar throwing a rage fit over the 85%

Applying the logic of the ancient era may not necessarily be effective in modern times.
Geopolitics is not a movie like Rambo, Getting directly involved in something that does not immediately affect us majorly can result in serious consequences. We risk making the same mistake as Rajiv Gandhi did in Sri Lanka, and this time, the outcome could be even worse. Myanmar is not like Sri Lanka; it is a massive piece of land, abundant with lush forests, and serves as a perfect insurgent paradise.

Our hands are already full with so many troubles, let us not add another one to it.

My concern is very simple; there is enough trouble in Manipur with the infiltration of the radical Christian kukis who have been upending the meiteis, especially the Hindu and Sanamahi ones in a communal war. The junta troops are just regular soldiers and we do not know what their loyalties are.

Also, they are military personnel, meaning that if they are allowed to stay just like that, tomorrow they will leverage their training and might defect to some Tom, Dick and Harry terrorist group on the border, by training brainwashed youth. This is precisely what happens both in our region and even in the Khalistan fiasco. If you remember the case of Shabeg Singh, where he ran afoul of the government on phony charges (by Indira and her pets) and later joined the Khalistanis. He, along with those other Sikh soldiers who were discharged dishonourably, was found to have trained Khalistani terrorists in military combat tactics.

We don't need a repeat. What we need to do is to cleanse Manipur of these terrorists and give full support to the meiteis there by the state. There are Kuki Indians also, but they are not the ones wielding AKs and shooting at meiteis. And then, we need to seal the border and put more weapons there, except for designated checkposts.

That being said, there is no point in helping the junta since they are hated by the locals. The term "armed forces" invokes the opposite sentiments compared to what it invokes in our country.

We should be working on finding our pro-India faction that can be installed in power. That means ready to supply such a faction with our weapons.

1) It will test our weapons in the field
2) It will put us as a serious player around our region and send a message that we will get involved if our neighbourhood is ruffled

This is nothing short of an indirect war against us.

Remember, this is a three-way slugfest between us, the Chinese and the Americans. And in this game, both China and the US are our circumstantial enemies.

 

[rkhanna]

Name the prominent ones that didn't except for basket cases like Africa.
Even in the case of Iran you don't see people against the Mullah back in the non major cities.

You don't need support, peoples indifference is more than enough.

Going against Junta is not an option so we must broker deal to safeguard our interest in Myanamr.
Cannot have a lunatic neighbor at our border.

Arey Bhai you made a statement so i was asking for examples now you are asking me for examples?

And no you are incorrect about Iran. The Country doesnt even band together in being Anti American let alone Pro Ayotallah. The Ayottallah has gutted their education and industries - other than O&G no real industry. Income from O&G doesnt flow to the people only to the people who keep the regime in Power

 

[Varoon2]

If there are individuals out there in cyber space, and in public, who are barking at India for its ties to Myanmar, there must be huge numbers of people with anger at white heat, against China, for being by a large margin, the major supporter of the Myanmar junta. If the first group's argument goes " But we expect better from India", they should know that India tried idealism for a few years in the 1990s, and it achieved absolutely nothing, less than nothing. And while the virtue signalling to India by certain groups and individuals continues, it still leaves untouched what to do about China's massive ingress into Myanmar. What plan do the mindless moralisers have, to reduce that influence, and make Myanmar more free and democratic?

 

[Azaad]

 

[Azaad]

Hundreds of school students displaced from strife-torn Myanmar resume studies in India

The closure of schools in Myanmar has also opened up opportunities for residents of Mizoram, who are now teaching students in restaurants across the border.

www.hindustantimes.com

On odd days throw out Indians from Myanmar , on even days let's seek refuge in India . This is apart from the usual -" India's unsafe for minorities " except someone forgot to tell that to minorities in the neighborhood and of course the average rockybul & sockybul who's been pole vaulting into India & will continue to do so.

The subject of the article would like to " pursue further studies in India & become a film maker here."Truly India's becoming Hotel California where people can check in anytime they like but can never leave for while our lax politics & security out there ensures the former , the judiciary ensures the latter .

 

[Freedom Thru Firepower]

 

[Waanar]

NE will get hot again if Tatmadaw isn't able to get a hold of these areas again.

 

[Azaad]

The Chin / Zo / Kuki / Mizo peoples are certainly having their cake & eating it too. For OTOH they've a defacto homeland in Myanmar , an independent militia & drug money apart from overseas remittances to finance their venture , OTOH they've a semi autonomous state in Mizoram which survives exclusively on central funds & grants fully financing even the goddamned toilet paper they utilise with zero accountability whatsoever .

To think they're barely half a million on the Myanmarese side & 1.5 million all put together on our side . I'd say they're definitely punching way above their weight.

 

[Tshering22]

It looks like we are going to have a problem soon.

PLA has been conducting wargames close to Myanmar's borders and has threatened to step in militarily.

I don't expect much of US Marine-style combat from the PLA soyboys but Xi has been itching to show Chinese military power for far too long.

Myanmar is the perfect scapegoat to try this on - small, weak and infighting, there is little that the Burmese government can do given the cocktail of loans and strategic dependence they have on CCP.

Whether PLA is bogged down by rebel fighting or not is a secondary question but PLA troops in Myanmar are a no-no. China may try to do with Myanmar what Russia did with Syria - took a portion of it virtually under itself and used it to create more military infrastructure against us while throwing some scraps at the Burmese government.

I wonder whether we have calculated a scenario where we might have to step in pre-emptively or in limited capacity...

 

[Jimih]

China may try to do with Myanmar what Russia did with Syria - took a portion of it virtually under itself and used it to create more military infrastructure against us while throwing some scraps at the Burmese government

The 'Donbassification' of Northeastern Myanmar looks very possible at this juncture.

 

[Blademaster]

The 'Donbassification' of Northeastern Myanmar looks very possible at this juncture.

And if not nipped in the bud it will spread to the NE sector of India. We need to be proactive and pre-empt it.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

It looks like we are going to have a problem soon.

PLA has been conducting wargames close to Myanmar's borders and has threatened to step in militarily.

I don't expect much of US Marine-style combat from the PLA soyboys but Xi has been itching to show Chinese military power for far too long.

Myanmar is the perfect scapegoat to try this on - small, weak and infighting, there is little that the Burmese government can do given the cocktail of loans and strategic dependence they have on CCP.

Whether PLA is bogged down by rebel fighting or not is a secondary question but PLA troops in Myanmar are a no-no. China may try to do with Myanmar what Russia did with Syria - took a portion of it virtually under itself and used it to create more military infrastructure against us while throwing some scraps at the Burmese government.

I wonder whether we have calculated a scenario where we might have to step in pre-emptively or in limited capacity...

Chinese making a joke out of US foreign policy, Biden looks like a clown with this direct challenge by China.