Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion

IndianHawk

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They produce almost nothing yet keep harping about trade deficit .

And yet somehow they keep buying new military equipment! Almost faster than India.
J10 jets along with jf17. 8 new subs from China and new frigates from both China and turkey! Along with new Saab eyrie. They have their priorities very clear .
 

FalconSlayers

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Pakistan’s biggest private utility Hubco forecasts power demand will fall in 2024
Reuters Published March 5, 2024

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KARACHI: Pakistan’s largest private utility Hub Power Co Ltd (Hubco) expects power consumption in the country to fall again this year due to higher tariffs and tepid industrial activity, a top executive told Reuters.

Power demand in Pakistan plunged last year by nearly a sixth and a decline in 2024 would mark the first time in 16 years that annual electricity use has fallen consecutively, data from energy think tank Ember showed.
“There is demand destruction on the industry side because the industry unfortunately is not growing,” Hubco Chief Financial Officer Muhammad Saqib told Reuters on the sidelines of the Energy Summit 2024 conference in Karachi.

Power consumption is a significant economic indicator in the developing economy and the expected decline this year underscores challenges facing the newly elected government in debt-laden Pakistan, amid growing discontent among the poor.
“Because of the significant increases in consumer tariffs, people obviously save on fuel trying to conserve energy,” Saqib said.

Rs30.8bn ‘recovery’ from Hubco: PSO seeks PD’s intervention
Poor and middle class households are still feeling the impact of the International Monetary Fund’s bailout of Pakistan last year, which contributed to rising retail prices including fuel and electricity charges.
Power cuts are also frequent in Pakistan, especially in far flung rural areas, due to grid issues, delays in importing fuel and hard currency shortages, though the frequency of such outages have reduced in the recent months.

Saqib said he expects a failure to carry out long-pending upgrades to Pakistan’s electricity grid would continue to contribute to inefficient power supply patterns, including the use of expensive and more polluting furnace oil despite availability of cheaper alternatives such as natural gas.
“There is no reason to use any furnace oil because Pakistan has ample capacity of imported LNG (liquefied natural gas). But because of grid constraints, we have to use furnace oil this summer also,” he said.
Pakistan has been trying to cut down on using furnace oil for power generation and boost natural gas-fired electricity production.

Saqib said grid constraints will also likely curb coal-fired power generation and hence coal imports.
Hubco’s own power plants would require 3.5 million metric tons of imported coal a year if power plants run at full capacity, but the company does not foresee imports exceeding 750,000 tons this year, he said.
“There is not enough capacity in the transmission lines to actually use those imported coal plants, although they’re at times cheaper than LNG-fired power.” Saqib said.

 

FalconSlayers

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Power consumption trends indicate de-industrialization in full swing
Hamid Waleed Published March 3, 2024

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LAHORE: Power generation and consumption trends indicate that deindustrialization is in full swing, said sources.

It may be noted that power generation has been falling since October 2023, hitting 33-month low in Nov 23, down by 8.2% YoY in Dec 23 and 2.5% YoY in Jan 24, they added.

Similarly, said the sources, power consumption is down by 8-10% across the country, driven by a decline in industrial and high-end domestic consumption.


It may be noted that Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) has already warned that changes in energy prices are generally likely to have implications for the competitiveness of economies. The fear is that the energy price policies impede the capacity of the domestic industry to compete in export markets, predominantly for energy-intensive sectors.

Beyond that, a more profound concern is the disparity in the availability and price of energy might erode the productive efficiency in industrial units of some regions, eventually leading to deindustrialization, says a study conducted recently.

Both industrial and high-end domestic consumers are considered to be major contributors to power sector fixed costs. Decline in consumption of these consumers means fixed costs are spread over a smaller pool of consumption necessitating tariff increase for all consumers through QTAs and higher tariffs cause consumption to decline further, necessitating yet more increases in power tariffs and so on.

Power sector experts have feared that this cycle will eventually lead to the collapse of the power sector and decimate industry along the way.

The sources said the industrial representatives have recently made a detailed presentation to the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to this effect where the competent authority has pledged to ensure power supply to them at 9 cents/kWh against TGE present level of over 14 cents/kWh ahead.

Similarly, in another development, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) LESCO has also explained to the NEPRA authorities that exorbitant power tariffs, and not TGE phenomenon of tripping, was the prime cause behind low consumption of electricity in the LESCO region.

High cost power tariff is impacting the industrial growth negatively in terms of its contribution to the total production cost.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
 

FalconSlayers

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ISLAMABAD: The overall Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector has shown a growth of -0.52 percent during the first seven months (July-January) 2023-24 when compared with the same period of last year, says Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
 

Jagattunga Govinda III

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We should cite the existence of terrorist groups in Pakistan that actively seek to kill and hurt Indian civilians as well as soldiers, as a reason to embargo these mfs. UPA-I & II fruitlessly went to hell and back to use economic diplomacy in a bid to get the Pakis to dismantle their terrorist outfits and to normalize ties as much as possible with them. Hell, even Modi tried that from 2014-16 by sending delegations there and even visiting Nawaz Sharif's daughter's wedding. What was the result? Pathankot was attacked barely a week after his visit. Even after all that also, India retained MFN status for Pak and only removed it as retaliation when Imraand Khan's govt imposed a trade embargo on India following the abrogation of Article 370.

The bare minimum criteria for trade normalization must include the dismantling of all the terrorist outfits (an Indian delegation should also be allowed to inspect the process as a confirmation) and the Paki state must provide appropriate compensation for all civilians and military personnel injured (physically/mentally/emotionally) or martyred as a result of Pak sponsored terror outfits. Anything less than that would mean that we are setting ourselves up for future backstabbing.
 
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ezsasa

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