Russia Ukraine War 2022

[ww2historian]

Of course.. it will be brutal for Ukraine if they approach Tokmak..which is defended 360 degrees.. but Russia and Eastern Europeans are hard people, unlike the West..
So, Ukraine will keep going until its totally f**ked, and that will take a couple of years atleast..

The problem is Ukraine is losing 700 soldiers on average everyday since the start of this suicide mission. I would calculate that out of a total population of 35 million people, perhaps only a million men would have the potential to make an average and above soldier. Most of their good and excellent soldiers are dead. They are not running out of men, they are running out of average and above men. I now think this will be over in less than a year.

 

[Hari Sud]

Lacklustre performance of Russians in Ukraine

Russia’s overrated war machine in Ukraine was a disappointment. Probably they had gone lethargic after Gorbachev/Yeltsin era. They did not plan well the invasion of Kiev on the opening days of the war. Hundreds of tanks, armoured vehicles, supply truck lay shot out of the roads. After that nobody thought that Russia will succeed.

Then, the Russians turned around and in their first battle to capture Maripul in the south; they displayed guts and determination. In-spite of that they lost their big battle ship Moskva. It was sunk in the Black Sea during early days of war. In June last year, the undersea Nord Stream pipeline was blown up. That was a major economic jolt. It was then that they began to avenge their losses. Despite all their losses, the Russians and the Wagner group captured the Bakhmut after 225 days of fighting in May this year. That was a big strategic Ukrainian/US/NATO loss.

After that it was a battle of missiles, flying bombs, UAVs, special forces action to destroy Crimean bridge, supply line etc. Now NATO had lost the strategic initiative.

During the fight to capture Bakhmut, the Russian were using stalemate tactics by stopping Ukrainian offensive with fire generating Phosphorus bombs, vacuum generating Thermobaric bombs, and cluster bombs. Missiles carrying these bombs were Kinzhal Missiles, Iskandar Missiles, Kalibr missile etc., carried by the late model MIG jets and a host of other fighter jets and helicopters. On the ground, the Russians used Grad, Smerch and Uragan multiple rocket launchers. These simply warded off the counter attacks.

On the issue of UAVs, their most effective weapon was Iranian Shaheed flying bomb. It is cheap and very effective. They deterred the Ukrainian UAVs coming to Russia with effective electronic countermeasures which killed the electronics of the UAVs. Hence Ukrainian counter offensives have not succeeded well.

One of the disappointments of the war was lack lustre performance of their top end T-90 tank. It did not live up to the expectations.

It is stalemate type of daily offensive and counter offensive with no progress on the ground.

 

[DumbPilot]

I have @JaguarWarrior on mute. What the fuck are mods doing lol. This is literal spam..

 

[Akim]

Marinka and Adviivka are cities, not villages. It is virtually impossible to take a city in this war. The last city Ukrainians took was Kherson on November 11 and that was using the threat of the dam. To take a city requires destroying just about every house in the city, and that's a lot of houses. Which is a virtually impossible task.

These are not cities, these are towns. Bakhmut is 2 times larger than Avdiivka, and the Severodonetsk-Lysichansk agglomeration is 2 times larger than Bakhmut. But they were captured. Only then they could not go further, because the forces for the offensive were worn out.
I will not briefly describe the program that is studied for 4-5 years in military colleges.
I repeat: The idea is correct, but voiced late. Russia takes everything out of its stocks, so when figures of tens of thousands of Geraniums and hundreds of thousands of Lancets are voiced here, I perceive them with a great deal of skepticism.
The same goes for mobilization. The Russian Empire in 1914 mobilized 6 million people, but only 2 million people were able to send to the front. Due to technical weakness. There were even units with hand grenades and axes - there were not enough rifles.
The modern Hitler, under the name Putin, has a chance to end the war, only with political steps. Russia no longer has military power. this is evidenced by the daily strikes on the Crimea and Moscow.

 

[Hari Sud]

A good army is well equipped and disciplined. That's what made the German and Japanese armies the best in the world. Taliban has discipline but poorly equipped. Russian and Ukrainian armies are well equipped but undisciplined because of Western values introduced in Russia and Ukraine in recent decades which corrupted the young people.

You missed to say something about the American young generation.

 

[chalochum]

Joke time
Russian Prime Minister Mishustin comes to Putin and nervously tells him to abolish time zones.

"I fly to another city, call home and everyone is asleep. I woke you up at 4AM but I thought it was only evening.

I call Olaf Scholz to congratulate him on his birthday and he tells me he had it yesterday.

I wish the Chinese President a happy New Year, and he says it will be tomorrow."

"Indeed" Putin replies "but that's only minor stuff. Remember when that plane crashed with Prigozhin on board? I called his family to express my condolences, but the plane hadn't taken off yet!"

 

[blackjack]

 

[kittoo420]

If anyone can shed insight on how much manpower Ukraine can muster, would be very helpful.

Russian sources are saying that at this point, Ukraine has complete disregard for casualties. Hundreds or thousands in a single day or for a single village- doesn't matter. There is complete media blackout so news of deaths doesn't flow. Zelensky and leadership has said that everyone will have to fight. So it's clear that they intend to fight till the last Ukranian.

But from a military/strategy/logistic/morale perspective, how many deaths can Ukraine take? On surface of it, manpower is far from over. Ukraine had about 40 million people pre-war. About 7 million left post war and 6 million are in now Russian areas. That leaves 27 million, which is plenty in theory. But Ukraine already had a lopsided age pyramid and their most well trained/motivated/fittest people have already died (200k killed, about 1 million total casualties).

So Ukraine could go on for a while but most will be cannon fodder. At what point does a society collapse? Germany lost about 7% of its population in WW2 before collapsing, which Ukraine is far from yet. How do we measure the Ukranian manpower capacity and trajectories wrt this war? This question is seriously puzzling me and any knowledgeable insights would be appreciated.

 

[Master Chief]

Ukrainian young people are too soft with Western values. Only the older generation like 50 and 60 year olds are mostly fighting on the front. Very few young people fight on the front. This is true for both Ukraine and Russia.

No dude.. that's not the case..a lot of young people have fought and died..

 

[Master Chief]

If anyone can shed insight on how much manpower Ukraine can muster, would be very helpful.

Russian sources are saying that at this point, Ukraine has complete disregard for casualties. Hundreds or thousands in a single day or for a single village- doesn't matter. There is complete media blackout so news of deaths doesn't flow. Zelensky and leadership has said that everyone will have to fight. So it's clear that they intend to fight till the last Ukranian.

But from a military/strategy/logistic/morale perspective, how many deaths can Ukraine take? On surface of it, manpower is far from over. Ukraine had about 40 million people pre-war. About 7 million left post war and 6 million are in now Russian areas. That leaves 27 million, which is plenty in theory. But Ukraine already had a lopsided age pyramid and their most well trained/motivated/fittest people have already died (200k killed, about 1 million total casualties).

So Ukraine could go on for a while but most will be cannon fodder. At what point does a society collapse? Germany lost about 7% of its population in WW2 before collapsing, which Ukraine is far from yet. How do we measure the Ukranian manpower capacity and trajectories wrt this war? This question is seriously puzzling me and any knowledgeable insights would be appreciated.

In both WW2 and American Civil war.. the war ended when 20 to 30 percent of the fighting age male population was killed..

 

[assassin162]

Russian young generation is pathetic. Coward. Lazy. Refuse to have kids. Selfish. Undisciplined. Unproductive. Drug addicted. Porn addicted. Hooked on disgusting fast food. Can't cook. No ambition. No life goals. Physically weak. Mentally weak. Gender confused. Not religious. Too much Western values.

Take me for example. I was born in China in 1984. Back when I was in primary school in 1990 there was mandatory physical exercise every morning. They don't do that anymore. No discipline.

By the way, Putin should come out with a proposal that those who have 3 children or more won't be forcefully drafted in army.... Maybe then we will see some action in population growth in Russia. Or pregnant women's husband wont be forcefully drafted kind of shit.....

 

[Master Chief]

Ukrainian soldiers in Robatino getting pounded by UMPK 500 kg guided glide bombs which have range 70 km outside the range of air defense. Losses are horrible.

There is nothing left standing.. Ukranians have to dig new holes.. before being spotted..

 

[Master Chief]

By the way, Putin should come out with a proposal that those who have 3 children or more won't be forcefully drafted in army.... Maybe then we will see some action in population growth in Russia. Or pregnant women's husband wont be forcefully drafted kind of shit.....

Also.. studs will be in great demand.. If a man can't impregnate his wife quickly, he may call the village Johnny sins to do the needful..

 

[assassin162]

Ukrainians led by a CIA planted Jew dont realise now, actually dying too quickly to even think why they are dying but by the end of it, a decade or two from now history will write how US annihilated so many Slavs (Ukrainians) for such a low investment. People are already saying that and it will surely go down in history as that way only, that we just weakened the slavs by getting slavs killed by Slavs.
Even majority of US citizens think of Ukrainians like idiots who are fighting Russia for the American establishment that majority Americans hate, many even think this corrupt piece of shit Ukraine is a place where American money gets laundered to their politicians. History will judge Ukrainians as fools of the highest order.

 

[Ylside]

Even majority of US citizens think of Ukrainians like idiots who are fighting Russia for the American establishment that majority Americans hate, many even think this corrupt piece of shit Ukraine is a place where American money gets laundered to their politicians. History will judge Ukrainians as fools of the highest order.

Well, do they have another options? When RuSSians claim that the Ukrainian nation doesnt exist and has to be absorbed back into Mother Russsia. They claim that Ukrainian language and culture need to be eradicated and population (especially children) brainwashed, reformatted and raised as Russians. So they are fighting for the very existence of their nation and couldnt care less who is supporting them, if USA, China or Taliban, as long as the support is coming.

 

[Ylside]

They say 3 Ukrainian pilots died, including Juice.

Quite a loss for the Ukrainian Air Force. Did read an interview with him over a year ago, lots of respect for fighting in their obsolete machines against modern Russian jets. Then kinda forgot about him, surprised he was still alive after everything.

DISPATCH: Interview With a Ukrainian MiG-29 Pilot

Emotional compartmentalization is among the fighter pilot’s most essential skills. Especially in wartime, when there is little time to reflect.

coffeeordie.com

 

[kittoo420]

In both WW2 and American Civil war.. the war ended when 20 to 30 percent of the fighting age male population was killed..

Thanks. So let's do some calculations

Current Ukraine total population- 27m
Population aged 15-64- 60%, so 27*.6= 16.2m
Out of which male population (Ukraine has .92 males per female in this age group) is .92/1.92= 48%, so male population 15-64= 16.2*.48=7.78m
But I took 15-64 range, which is too large a range. So let's reduce the 7.78m to 7m (still being very generous).

Finally, assuming Ukraine will hold till 20-30% of this population remains,

Ukraine capacity= .2*7 to .3*7
=1.4m to 2.1m.

Basically Ukraine will collapse when 1.5-2m people have died. Currently they've lost about .2-.3m by most estimates. So yeah they have at least 1 million more to spare if they do decide to fight till complete collapse. It doesn't take into factor the quality, training, equipment, morale, motivation etc., which are their own issues.

 

[Dharmapalas]

Daily Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow have angered Russians and now there are thousands of volunteers signing up to fight Ukrainians. The war is about to get ugly next year. Russia has 4 times the population of Ukraine but only 2 times the number of soldiers. Next year Russians will have 4 times the number of soldiers. @Akim

Ukrainians are attacking Moscow, but the Russian military is finding "Volunteers" from provincial towns in Siberia. lol.

 

[Dharmapalas]

If China Invaded India, what percentage of the Indian male population would have to die before people here were to go crying to the Indian government to tell them to surrender and give China everything they demanded?

5%? 10%? 20% ???

 

[Anirbann Datta]

In WW1 German and Austrian and Russian losses were so high the German and Austrian and Russian emperors were overthrown by their own people.

Quite possible that history might repeat itself for russia earlier than ukraine...