These trade wars are meant to "test the water", they have no true impact, and they are going on from both sides, they will find a middle ground eventually.
Let us not underestimate China's capability. China can effectively respond to the emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic trends. Chinese are smart people. They will modify their economic policies.
China's close-to 20 Trillion USD economy has got sufficient inertia. We have been hearing the doom's day predictions about China since past 20-30 years. China's economy is too large to crumble, almost improbable.
Diversification will take it's time and it will invite new players which won't necessarily subscribe to the western worldview (take India for an example) or to the current geopolitical status-quo.
Back on the topic of India-US drama in relation to the alleged failed assassination attempt, the Americans are shocked by the "audacity" of the Indian state to target a US citizen on the US soil. Going by the recent track record of the Indian Government, we are most likely prepared for what is coming.
As far as the WaPo report is concerned, it is mostly based on the "internal assessments", "projections" and "opinions" rather than on the "hard and precise intelligence gathering". It is a sloppy piece of work.
Test the waters??! The US has literally cut China off from the high end SMC eco system thus impairing its ability to climb up the value ladder & you're dismissing it as testing the waters ? Ditto for the US ban on solar panels where the Chinese have an absolute monopoly & the EV sector where they're well on the way to do so.
Who's talking about collapsing the Chinese economy? I'm talking about their growth being stifled which will have first , second & third order effects on their economy & consequently on their population for their economy is export dependent. They haven't been able to make the transition into a balance between exports & domestic demand.
For starters their realty business is haemorraging heavily. CCP isn't bailing out both - the realtors or their consumers - the ordinary citizen. Can you imagine the toll it has taken on everybody concerned from the economy (where realty sector contributed the highest to the GDP numbers & growth) to that sector itself to consumer trust apart from the losses incurred to the ordinary citizen.
Does this mean the realty sector has vanished? No, but the numbers are extremely subdued. Where do you think the construction workers will be employed now? CCP is telling everyone who's willing to listen that the reason they aren't bailing out the realty sector is coz they're now focusing on hi tech industry like EVs, automation, industrial robots, SMC etc which is primarily export driven.
How many people are these sectors supposed to employ as compared to the realty sector ? Besides its not as if the CCP doesn't want to bail out the realty sector. It's just that they can't coz their banking & shadow banking sectors are massively indebted & over leveraged. For perspective check out how their realty sector managed to raise enormous amounts of finance & why the entire thing became one giant ponzi scheme?
Now add to it their high paying job being on the line due to subdued exports apart from the low paying ones which can be compensated for to an extent by a low paying one with no guarantee whatsoever of regaining it because of the uncertainty in the economy. Is that a collapse of the economy or a significant downgrade?
How the CCP reacts to these rapid changes & its fall out will determine the course China takes.